Analysis of French election results
This is a summary of an analysis made by Francois Asselineau shortly after the 2nd round of voting in French legislative assembly elections that were held on July 7th, 2024.
Union Populaire Républicaine (UPR), anti-EU “pro-sovereignty” minority French party since 2007
https://www.upr.fr/
UPR leader: Francois Asselineau, former high-level civil servant (haut fonctionnaire), self-described as on the right but refused to be affiliated with the right coalition (RN)
Analysis of the results of the legislative elections of July 2024
English summary of the analysis given at the link: https://www.youtube.com/live/niMazXlxihA?si=UxHlrcw4fYS1t5rp (40 minutes, in French)
First, note that if France had the same electoral rules as the UK, the “far right” coalition Rassemblement National (RN) would have won after the first and only round. In the British system, the party with the most votes wins the electoral district, even if it has less than a majority. The French system is better than the British system, but the second round in the French system can be manipulated in clever ways, and that is what happened here.
The “far right” coalition has existed for 30 years in some form or another. It has never put forward candidates who have qualifications, experience, and knowledge. It continually puts forward a slate of know-nothings (nuls)—people who can’t speak in the media with any grasp of economics, history and international relations.
Nonetheless, they are given a platform in the media and they are put up as the threat to all that is decent. They get the government funding that is given to parties that achieve a certain percentage of the popular vote in national elections. They are state-sponsored and media-sponsored, but when the election campaign comes to its final days, the hammer comes down in the media and they never win. This time, Macron conspired with the leftist coalition in the second round of voting by strategically withdrawing his Ensemble coalition candidates in districts where the leftist coalition, Nouveau Front Populaire could beat the rightist coalition. The right-wing parties are the state-controlled opposition, functioning for Macron or the centrist party of the day in the same way Trump serves the Democrats in the US. The centrists have said their approach to the “far right” is to “let the weeds grow so it will be easier to cut them down later.”
The small, minority party UPR, led by Francois Asselineau, is anti-euro, anti-EU and anti-NATO. It has a full slate of candidates across France who are articulate, highly educated and qualified, but they are shut out of the media. Millions of people view their videos, and people on the street shake Mr. Asselineau’s hand and tell him they love his analyses and policies, but in the end most of them decide they don’t want to vote for a party that will get only a single digit percentage of the popular vote. They fail to remember what he has always said: If the UPR gets above 2% of the popular vote, it will receive state funding for its campaigns. That’s how they can build the party and the movement.
Mr. Mélenchon and his leftist coalition (Nouveau Front Populaire) have won the largest bloc of votes in the parliament, but not a majority. It remains to be seen what they will be able to achieve in a coalition with Macron’s party. They have some good ideas for improving the lives of French citizens, supporting Palestine, and for ending the war in Ukraine, but the reality they will not face, and that the media never discusses, is that the power to carry out reforms and sensible policies is blocked by Brussels (EU), Frankfurt (ECB) and Washington (NATO). Progressive reforms will not be possible until there is a party in power that is ready to restore national sovereignty and withdraw from these three centers of supra-national power. When this leftist coalition fails to deliver promises (because it will be denigrated by the media), it will suffer in the next presidential and parliamentary elections, and the centrist neoliberal party, whatever it is called then, and whether it is led by Macron or someone else, will be able to recover from its present temporary setback.